The SaaS Reckoning Is Real. Building It Yourself Still Isn't the Answer.

A trillion dollars in SaaS value disappeared in a single quarter. That's not a build-versus-buy argument. It's proof the old binary was already broken, and there's a better way through it.
Published on
September 18, 2026
Written by
Matt DeFrancesco, Head Of Growth

A client sent me a screenshot last month: an invoice for a few hundred dollars a month for a tool his operations team had paid for years. Under it, he had pasted a working prototype his team had built over a weekend using an AI coding assistant, one that did most of the same job. He wanted to know if he should cancel the subscription and have someone finish the build.  

I hear a version of that question a few times a week now. The mistake is treating the situation as a build or buy question. Both sides skip the same step. Nobody prices what the system costs to run in year three, only what it costs to switch it on.  That question is the market today. Earlier, it used to sit with an engineering team. It now sits with the board, most of whom are getting it wrong.  
 
McKinsey's latest global survey found that 32 percent of companies have already skipped a software purchase because an AI coding tool could build the equivalent instead, a share that reaches 41 percent among technology companies themselves. The same survey found the share of companies crediting any earnings impact to AI has held flat at 37 percent for a year, which shows how often the decision to build outpaces the payoff.  The difference between companies that are successful in building their own software versus ones that have gone down a make-it-work rabbit hole is a single thought: pricing what a system costs to keep alive for years and not just switch on.

The pendulum has swung already, the numbers prove it

For a decade, the safe answer to almost any software question was to buy, because building was slow, expensive, and rarely core to the business. Not anymore. In the first quarter of 2026, roughly a trillion dollars in aggregate SaaS market capitalization evaporated. Public software multiples that had held near seven times revenue for years compressed in value to to roughly five, in some measures closer to three. HubSpot cut prices on its AI agent features this year and moved toward charging by resolved ticket rather than by seat, even as its own revenue kept growing 23 percent that quarter. Salesforce built a consumption-based pricing model for its Agentforce product for the same reason. The industrial complex built around renting the same generic workflow to every company in a category is being repriced in real time. The businesses paying attention are already asking whether the platforms they've licensed for a decade still deserve the premium.  
 
The trigger was a new generation of AI agents that could execute the multistep workflows those subscriptions were sold to run, which forced investors to ask a question enterprise buyers had been quietly asking for a year: what exactly is the per-seat license still paying for if the seat is optional now?  

Gartner tracked the shift and projects that, by 2028, 90 percent of enterprise software engineers will use AI code assistants, up from under 14 percent in early 2024. That adoption curve is most of the explanation for the McKinsey number. When a working prototype takes a weekend instead of a quarter, the case for buying stops being automatic. Technology companies skip a software purchase at the highest rate of any sector, at 41 percent.  
This is the market pricing shift my client's screenshot represented precisely, just three orders of magnitude larger.  

The answer to the issues mentioned above isn’t to build everything in-house. The argument has clearly moved. The question now isn't “Can we replace this SaaS tool?”  It's “What's actually the right size and shape of software for how we run, and who should own it?”

The evidence beyond the market

Gartner's own research backs the same shift from the technology side. Ninety percent of enterprise software engineers are projected to use AI code assistants by 2028, up from under fourteen percent in 2024. Separately, Gartner estimates $234 billion in enterprise application spend, roughly a fifth of total SaaS spend, is exposed to disruption from agentic AI by 2030. The SaaS side isn't holding up on delivery either: more than seventy percent of recently implemented ERP initiatives will fail to fully meet their original business case by 2027, with a quarter failing outright. And Gartner has flagged 2030 as the year vendor lock-in becomes the line separating companies that scale AI safely from ones that end up outpaced or trapped inside someone else's roadmap.

Put together, this is no longer a debate about whether the old model holds. It's a countdown for how long companies can keep paying full freight for software shaped for someone else's average customer. The execution gap runs through both columns of the ledger. The successful minority on either side of build vs. buy share the same habit: pricing the outcome before committing to either path.

The math that gets skipped when the pendulum swings too far

The temptation, once the crash makes headlines, is to overcorrect into "just build it ourselves." That's the trap on the other side. Industry writer Brandur Leach ran the numbers on a familiar scenario: someone replacing a $400-a-month subscription with an internally built tracker. Price an engineer at $200,000 a year, and you're paying roughly $96 an hour for their time. To beat that $400 bill, they can spend no more than four hours a month keeping the homegrown version alive before counting the cost of pulling their attention off the work they were hired to do. Assume an AI assistant cuts maintenance to two hours a month, and the project still takes years to break even.  

Leach calls this a zone of viability, a band where buying still beats building even when a model will happily write the alternative for free. His math is conservative because it only prices the person at the keyboard. It doesn't price the carry.

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The cost of the carry

Code was never the hard part of software. The hard part has no demo: the integration with three other systems that already hold your data, the permissions model deciding who sees what, the audit trail a regulator or acquirer will eventually ask for, and the edge cases nobody specified until they broke something. None of that shows up in a weekend prototype. All of it shows up later, as a recurring obligation instead of a one-time cost.

Context decay. The person who built the tool understands it completely on the day they build it. Six months later, nobody understands it, because none of that reasoning was ever written down anywhere durable.  

The integration surface. Every internal tool touching real company data opens a surface you now own and must defend: authentication, access control, logging, data residency, and single sign-on. A vendor carries that cost today. Build the replacement, and the cost doesn't disappear; it moves onto your own balance sheet, usually unfunded.  

Attention. In a fifty- or two-hundred-person company, the scarcest resource in the building is leadership's capacity to make decisions. Every hour spent wondering whether the internal tool is computing the right number is an hour not spent on work that compounds.  

Feature gravity. Internal tools don't stay the size they were on the day they were born. People ask for changes, the list grows, and the person who built it becomes a part-time product manager for a product that doesn't generate revenue.

One question does the work of the whole framework

If the person who built this left tomorrow, what happens?  

If nothing happens, someone deletes it and the business moves on. Build it, ship it, forget it. It was never a product, just a means of convenience.  

If the company had to reverse-engineer the thing and rebuild it from scratch, that's a vendor-shaped hole. The fee you resent is the price of not carrying the obligation yourself, and even Leach's conservative math shows the fee usually beats the carry.  

If critical workflows would break and nobody could fix them, the decision already got made badly. The only useful move left is fixing it before the failure arrives on its own schedule instead of yours.

The SaaS trap, made concrete

Strip away the market drama, and the trap enterprise software buyers have lived with for two decades is simple, and it's the same trap on both sides of build vs. buy. Per-user licensing compounds year over year, typically eight to twelve percent annually, as a permanent drag on margin that has nothing to do with whether you use more of the product. The vendor owns the software and the data model and controls the roadmap, the pricing, and the deprecation schedule on their own timeline, not yours. The product is generic by construction, built for the average of a thousand customers, so your team bends its workflow around the tool instead of the other way around. Your data sits in the vendor's schema, with real switching costs the day you want to leave. And AI capability arrives as a bolt-on feature on the vendor's roadmap, priced as an upgrade, months, or years after it would have actually helped.  

None of that is a reason to build it yourself and inherit the carry instead. It's a reason to ask whether the platform you're renting was ever sized to your business in the first place.

There's a better way there

Framed as build-vs-buy software, both sides look like a trade with no free option. Build, and you fit your business exactly, but you carry the obligation. Buy, and you shed the carry, but the product fits nobody in particular. The way through isn't picking a side. It's a structure that gives you the fit of a build and the accountability of a vendor in one relationship: a partner who builds to your exact workflow, then stays to run it the way a vendor would, priced so keeping the system alive stays cheap rather than becoming a meter that runs forever.  

This is what we've built at thinkbridge with thinkOne, and the results aren't theoretical. We've helped a vertically integrated luxury manufacturer that spent years on packaged ERP still running eighty percent of its business on spreadsheets and email; a custom, cloud-native system spanning design through finance cut its costs sixty percent versus the packaged alternative and reached production in under six months. We replaced 253 spreadsheets and more than a hundred manual processes at a global distribution house with one platform connecting sales, forecasting, and warehousing. Across engagements like these, thinkbridge has delivered more than 350 projects and created over $500 million in measured incremental value, work that compresses transformations traditionally running twelve to eighteen months into under sixteen weeks.  

The commercial model is built the same way the argument demands. The client owns the code, the data, and the roadmap outright from day one, with no license to renew and no migration if the relationship ends.  Cost is spread out like a capital asset over roughly forty to sixty months instead of hitting the P&L as one large build cost or an open-ended subscription. Total cost of ownership typically runs more than sixty percent below comparable SaaS or traditional custom builds over the life of the system.  The platform is built to swap its underlying AI model without touching the client's application, so nobody inherits a single AI lab's pricing changes, roadmap shifts, or acquisition risk. Two people run each engagement: a delivery principal who owns the outcome through every sign-off gate and a customer success lead who owns what comes next, with pricing structured so the partner earns less when the system misbehaves, not more.  

That's the test worth applying to any partner claiming to do this: if they walked away tomorrow, what happens? A real one has already designed its own departure to be survivable. It hands you the code and the context or holds them jointly, rather than hoarding either.

What organizations should actually do

First, run the rightsizing test on your three largest SaaS line items before the next renewal. List what your team actually uses against what you're licensed for. Where the gap is wide, the choice was never build-or-buy; it's whether you keep overpaying for a platform sized for someone else or get the narrow, custom-fit version of what you actually run.  

Second, audit for the tools your own people have already built. Every AI-assisted prototype running inside your business today is either a convenience with a clear owner or a liability quietly accumulating the carry. Find out which.  

Third, stop measuring "build" against your team's spare time and start measuring it against a real delivery model, one that owns the outcome rather than bills the hours.  

The trillion-dollar quarter didn't prove that SaaS is over. It proved the market finally agrees with what the math always said: paying full price for generic software, or quietly building and forgetting to fund the alternative, are both bets against the odds. There's a better way between them, and it was always available. It just took a reckoning this size for the industry to go looking for it.

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The SaaS Reckoning Is Real. Building It Yourself Still Isn't the Answer.

A trillion dollars in SaaS value disappeared in a single quarter. That's not a build-versus-buy argument. It's proof the old binary was already broken, and there's a better way through it.
build vs buy, thinkbridge,
Written by
Matt DeFrancesco
Published on
September 18, 2026

A client sent me a screenshot last month: an invoice for a few hundred dollars a month for a tool his operations team had paid for years. Under it, he had pasted a working prototype his team had built over a weekend using an AI coding assistant, one that did most of the same job. He wanted to know if he should cancel the subscription and have someone finish the build.  

I hear a version of that question a few times a week now. The mistake is treating the situation as a build or buy question. Both sides skip the same step. Nobody prices what the system costs to run in year three, only what it costs to switch it on.  That question is the market today. Earlier, it used to sit with an engineering team. It now sits with the board, most of whom are getting it wrong.  
 
McKinsey's latest global survey found that 32 percent of companies have already skipped a software purchase because an AI coding tool could build the equivalent instead, a share that reaches 41 percent among technology companies themselves. The same survey found the share of companies crediting any earnings impact to AI has held flat at 37 percent for a year, which shows how often the decision to build outpaces the payoff.  The difference between companies that are successful in building their own software versus ones that have gone down a make-it-work rabbit hole is a single thought: pricing what a system costs to keep alive for years and not just switch on.

The pendulum has swung already, the numbers prove it

For a decade, the safe answer to almost any software question was to buy, because building was slow, expensive, and rarely core to the business. Not anymore. In the first quarter of 2026, roughly a trillion dollars in aggregate SaaS market capitalization evaporated. Public software multiples that had held near seven times revenue for years compressed in value to to roughly five, in some measures closer to three. HubSpot cut prices on its AI agent features this year and moved toward charging by resolved ticket rather than by seat, even as its own revenue kept growing 23 percent that quarter. Salesforce built a consumption-based pricing model for its Agentforce product for the same reason. The industrial complex built around renting the same generic workflow to every company in a category is being repriced in real time. The businesses paying attention are already asking whether the platforms they've licensed for a decade still deserve the premium.  
 
The trigger was a new generation of AI agents that could execute the multistep workflows those subscriptions were sold to run, which forced investors to ask a question enterprise buyers had been quietly asking for a year: what exactly is the per-seat license still paying for if the seat is optional now?  

Gartner tracked the shift and projects that, by 2028, 90 percent of enterprise software engineers will use AI code assistants, up from under 14 percent in early 2024. That adoption curve is most of the explanation for the McKinsey number. When a working prototype takes a weekend instead of a quarter, the case for buying stops being automatic. Technology companies skip a software purchase at the highest rate of any sector, at 41 percent.  
This is the market pricing shift my client's screenshot represented precisely, just three orders of magnitude larger.  

The answer to the issues mentioned above isn’t to build everything in-house. The argument has clearly moved. The question now isn't “Can we replace this SaaS tool?”  It's “What's actually the right size and shape of software for how we run, and who should own it?”

The evidence beyond the market

Gartner's own research backs the same shift from the technology side. Ninety percent of enterprise software engineers are projected to use AI code assistants by 2028, up from under fourteen percent in 2024. Separately, Gartner estimates $234 billion in enterprise application spend, roughly a fifth of total SaaS spend, is exposed to disruption from agentic AI by 2030. The SaaS side isn't holding up on delivery either: more than seventy percent of recently implemented ERP initiatives will fail to fully meet their original business case by 2027, with a quarter failing outright. And Gartner has flagged 2030 as the year vendor lock-in becomes the line separating companies that scale AI safely from ones that end up outpaced or trapped inside someone else's roadmap.

Put together, this is no longer a debate about whether the old model holds. It's a countdown for how long companies can keep paying full freight for software shaped for someone else's average customer. The execution gap runs through both columns of the ledger. The successful minority on either side of build vs. buy share the same habit: pricing the outcome before committing to either path.

The math that gets skipped when the pendulum swings too far

The temptation, once the crash makes headlines, is to overcorrect into "just build it ourselves." That's the trap on the other side. Industry writer Brandur Leach ran the numbers on a familiar scenario: someone replacing a $400-a-month subscription with an internally built tracker. Price an engineer at $200,000 a year, and you're paying roughly $96 an hour for their time. To beat that $400 bill, they can spend no more than four hours a month keeping the homegrown version alive before counting the cost of pulling their attention off the work they were hired to do. Assume an AI assistant cuts maintenance to two hours a month, and the project still takes years to break even.  

Leach calls this a zone of viability, a band where buying still beats building even when a model will happily write the alternative for free. His math is conservative because it only prices the person at the keyboard. It doesn't price the carry.

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