A client sent me a screenshot last month: an invoice for a few hundred dollars a month for a tool his operations team had paid for years. Under it, he had pasted a working prototype his team had built over a weekend using an AI coding assistant, one that did most of the same job. He wanted to know if he should cancel the subscription and have someone finish the build.
I hear a version of that question a few times a week now. The mistake is treating the situation as a build or buy question. Both sides skip the same step. Nobody prices what the system costs to run in year three, only what it costs to switch it on. That question is the market today. Earlier, it used to sit with an engineering team. It now sits with the board, most of whom are getting it wrong.
McKinsey's latest global survey found that 32 percent of companies have already skipped a software purchase because an AI coding tool could build the equivalent instead, a share that reaches 41 percent among technology companies themselves. The same survey found the share of companies crediting any earnings impact to AI has held flat at 37 percent for a year, which shows how often the decision to build outpaces the payoff. The difference between companies that are successful in building their own software versus ones that have gone down a make-it-work rabbit hole is a single thought: pricing what a system costs to keep alive for years and not just switch on.
The pendulum has swung already, the numbers prove it
For a decade, the safe answer to almost any software question was to buy, because building was slow, expensive, and rarely core to the business. Not anymore. In the first quarter of 2026, roughly a trillion dollars in aggregate SaaS market capitalization evaporated. Public software multiples that had held near seven times revenue for years compressed in value to to roughly five, in some measures closer to three. HubSpot cut prices on its AI agent features this year and moved toward charging by resolved ticket rather than by seat, even as its own revenue kept growing 23 percent that quarter. Salesforce built a consumption-based pricing model for its Agentforce product for the same reason. The industrial complex built around renting the same generic workflow to every company in a category is being repriced in real time. The businesses paying attention are already asking whether the platforms they've licensed for a decade still deserve the premium.
The trigger was a new generation of AI agents that could execute the multistep workflows those subscriptions were sold to run, which forced investors to ask a question enterprise buyers had been quietly asking for a year: what exactly is the per-seat license still paying for if the seat is optional now?
Gartner tracked the shift and projects that, by 2028, 90 percent of enterprise software engineers will use AI code assistants, up from under 14 percent in early 2024. That adoption curve is most of the explanation for the McKinsey number. When a working prototype takes a weekend instead of a quarter, the case for buying stops being automatic. Technology companies skip a software purchase at the highest rate of any sector, at 41 percent.
This is the market pricing shift my client's screenshot represented precisely, just three orders of magnitude larger.
The answer to the issues mentioned above isn’t to build everything in-house. The argument has clearly moved. The question now isn't “Can we replace this SaaS tool?” It's “What's actually the right size and shape of software for how we run, and who should own it?”
The evidence beyond the market
Gartner's own research backs the same shift from the technology side. Ninety percent of enterprise software engineers are projected to use AI code assistants by 2028, up from under fourteen percent in 2024. Separately, Gartner estimates $234 billion in enterprise application spend, roughly a fifth of total SaaS spend, is exposed to disruption from agentic AI by 2030. The SaaS side isn't holding up on delivery either: more than seventy percent of recently implemented ERP initiatives will fail to fully meet their original business case by 2027, with a quarter failing outright. And Gartner has flagged 2030 as the year vendor lock-in becomes the line separating companies that scale AI safely from ones that end up outpaced or trapped inside someone else's roadmap.
Put together, this is no longer a debate about whether the old model holds. It's a countdown for how long companies can keep paying full freight for software shaped for someone else's average customer. The execution gap runs through both columns of the ledger. The successful minority on either side of build vs. buy share the same habit: pricing the outcome before committing to either path.
The math that gets skipped when the pendulum swings too far
The temptation, once the crash makes headlines, is to overcorrect into "just build it ourselves." That's the trap on the other side. Industry writer Brandur Leach ran the numbers on a familiar scenario: someone replacing a $400-a-month subscription with an internally built tracker. Price an engineer at $200,000 a year, and you're paying roughly $96 an hour for their time. To beat that $400 bill, they can spend no more than four hours a month keeping the homegrown version alive before counting the cost of pulling their attention off the work they were hired to do. Assume an AI assistant cuts maintenance to two hours a month, and the project still takes years to break even.
Leach calls this a zone of viability, a band where buying still beats building even when a model will happily write the alternative for free. His math is conservative because it only prices the person at the keyboard. It doesn't price the carry.
.webp)









.png)